Week 8 is wrapped up and we are closer to finding out how each region will line up in the playoffs.

With JoxPreps bracketology, we take a look at how we feel the brackets could play out as we near the end of region play. Below is the bracket as we see it here at JoxPreps. This is nothing more than us looking at the numbers so far and projecting where teams could finish. It is our opinion, and none of this is set in stone unless noted below as “locked in”.

With each team listed in the bracket, we have given a confidence grade. This shows how confident we are that a team will finish in a certain spot. A “HIGH” grade means that we feel they will almost assuredly finish in that spot. A “MEDIUM” grade means that we feel that the team will most likely finish somewhere around where we have them listed, maybe a spot or two off depending on future results. A “LOW” grade means that things are still way up in the air and this is only an opinion from us, but there is a lot that still has to play out.

If a team has “LOCKED” next to their name, they are 100% set in that spot. Teams in red on the bracket are set in those spots.

Here is the JoxPreps bracketology for Class 5A as of right now:

Confidence

LOCKED = Team is 100% locked into that spot
HIGH = Most likely will finish where they are
MEDIUM = Most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but things could drastically change with just one or two results


Region 1

1. VigorLOCKED
2. St. Paul’sLOCKED
3. JacksonMEDIUM
4. WilliamsonMEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Citronelle

Vigor’s win over St. Paul’s won them the region title last week with Citronelle also losing to Williamson. Because of Citronelle’s loss, they now have to beat Jackson to lock up a playoff spot, or hope that Williamson loses to last place Wilcox Central. St. Paul’s will hold the tiebreaker over anyone but Vigor, so even if they lose this week to Faith Academy, they are locked into second. The winner of Jackson/Citronelle is guaranteed third and avoids Demopolis in the first round. If Jackson beats Citronelle and Williamson wins, Williamson is the fourth place team and Citronelle will have played their way out of the playoffs, despite beating region champ Vigor at the beginning of the season.


Region 2

1. CarrollLOCKED
2. EufaulaLOCKED
3. Charles HendersonHIGH
4. GreenvilleHIGH

Others that could grab a spot: None

Carroll is locked in as region champ, and Eufaula locked themselves in this past week as well. Rehobeth could cause a tiebreaker still with Charles Henderson and Greenville, but they would lose it no matter what. The above seeds are almost set in stone, the only change would be if Greenville somehow beat Carroll and Charles Henderson lost to last place Headland, which isn’t likely to happen.


Region 3

1. DemopolisLOCKED
2. CaleraMEDIUM
3. Central-TuscaloosaMEDIUM
4. MarburyMEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: None

Demopolis has locked up the region title. Calera has to beat Marbury to lock up the second seed. If they lose, then it could cause a three-way tiebreaker if Central beats Dallas County. We are fairly confident in Calera winning, therefore setting the above seeds in stone.


Region 4

1. BeauregardLOCKED
2. Central-Clay CountyMEDIUM
3. SylacaugaMEDIUM
4. TalladegaMEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: None

Beauregard locked up the region title with a win this past week. The next three teams are locked into the playoffs, but the seeding is still up in the air. Central has to play Talladega. If Central wins, they lock up second place. If they lose, then it could cause a three-way tie where there are a few different ways things could go.


Region 5

1. BriarwoodLOCKED
2. WenonahHIGH
3. St. Clair CountyHIGH
4. Pleasant GroveLOCKED

Others that could grab a spot: None

Briarwood is locked in to first place. This is a weird scenario where Pleasant Grove is locked into fourth place, even though seeds 2/3 aren’t set. Wenonah and St. Clair County play this weekend to determine second seed and home field advantage. However, there can’t be a three-way tiebreaker, so even if Pleasant Grove beats the #1 team, they can’t finish ahead of Wenonah or St. Clair County due to losing to both of them head-to-head.


Region 6

1. Mortimer JordanHIGH
2. HaydenHIGH
3. West PointMEDIUM
4. CornerMEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Curry

Mortimer Jordan and Hayden play this week for the region title. If Hayden wins, then they are first and Mortimer Jordan is second no matter what. If Mortimer Jordan wins, then Hayden is guaranteed second. West Point needs to beat Curry to finish third, and if they do, then Corner will be fourth. If they lose, there will be a 3-way tie that still has to be played out in non-region games. Corner is done with region play and is in a wait and see mode right now.


Region 7

1. EtowahLOCKED
2. GuntersvilleLOCKED
3. AlexandriaMEDIUM
4. CrossvilleMEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Scottsboro

Etowah locked up the region with a win this past week and Guntersville’s win over Alexandria locked them into second place. Alexandria still has to beat Crossville to lock up third. Meanwhile, Scottsboro gets Etowah, which will be tough. Scottsboro loses the head to head tiebreaker with both Alexandria and Crossville. Their only hope is that they can beat Etowah and Alexandria beats Crossville so they can finish fourth at 4-3 and Crossville drops to 3-4. That will be tough.


Region 8

1. Mae JemisonLOCKED
2. BrooksLOCKED
3. Lee-HuntsvilleHIGH
4. East LimestoneMEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Lawrence County, Russellville

Mae Jemison locked up the region title with a win last week. They win their first region title in only the second year of playing under the Mae Jemison name. Their last region title before that was in 2013 under JO Johnson down in class 4A. Brooks locked themselves in as well in the second seed. The next four teams are all playing for a playoff spot. Lee-Huntsville is in good position as they only need to beat 0-8 St. John Paul II this week. Behind them, there are three teams fighting for the last spot: East Limestone, Lawrence County and Russellville.

Yes, Russellville is still alive, despite starting the season 0-5 and only sitting at 2-7 right now. They are 2-4 in region play, but can force a three-way tie if East Limestone loses to second place Brooks and Lawrence County loses to first place Mae Jemison, which are both likely to happen. Russellville then only needs to beat Ardmore to force the tiebreaker. Then there will be no in-region tiebreaker since they all beat Ardmore, St. John Paul II and each other, so it will head to non-region games. The tiebreaker will go down to tiebreaker “L” in the rule book, which states: “The team whose defeated non-region opponents (in class, above class, and within two classes below) have the most victories if all teams involved in the tie play an equal number of games.” As of now, it sits like this:

East Limestone (4): West Limestone, 4 wins
Remaining opponents: Tanner, 3 wins (ineligible, Class 2A)

Lawrence County (0): East Lawrence, 0 wins
Remaining opponents: West Point, 5 wins

Russellville (0): None
Remaining opponents: Colbert County, 5 wins

Obviously there are still two weeks left to change all of this, but if it comes to this and Russellville can defeat Colbert County (who is 3A, therefore within two classes below), then they will be at at least 5 wins. Same goes for Lawrence County. However, East Limestone is playing Tanner, who doesn’t count because they are in 2A which is three classifications below. So they are stuck at West Limestone’s win total which is at 4 right now but could grow. That puts them ahead for now, so we will leave them there. West Limestone, West Point and Colbert County are all fighting for their own playoff seeding this week, so the win totals could change.

The team with the highest total at the end wins and is the fourth team in. It’s possible there could be a tie again with two or three teams having 5 or 6 wins in their total. If there is a tie between two teams, then it would go like this:

East Limestone/Lawrence County = East Limestone wins
East Limestone/Russellville = Russellville wins
Lawrence County/Russellville = Lawrence County wins

If there is a tie between the three teams, then it will go to tiebreaker “M” which states: “The team whose defeated opponents have the most victories if all teams involved in the tie play an equal number of games.” If it gets to that point, you’d add up the total wins for every team defeated, including in region. For the sake of everyone’s headache, we won’t dive into that just yet. We’ll see how next week goes before getting into that.

Hopefully all that made sense. Basically, each team just needs to win out and hope for the best.