Week 8 is wrapped up and we are closer to finding out how each region will line up in the playoffs.
With JoxPreps bracketology, we take a look at how we feel the brackets could play out as we near the end of region play. Below is the bracket as we see it here at JoxPreps. This is nothing more than us looking at the numbers so far and projecting where teams could finish. It is our opinion, and none of this is set in stone unless noted below as “locked in”.
With each team listed in the bracket, we have given a confidence grade. This shows how confident we are that a team will finish in a certain spot. A “HIGH” grade means that we feel they will almost assuredly finish in that spot. A “MEDIUM” grade means that we feel that the team will most likely finish somewhere around where we have them listed, maybe a spot or two off depending on future results. A “LOW” grade means that things are still way up in the air and this is only an opinion from us, but there is a lot that still has to play out.
If a team has “LOCKED” next to their name, they are 100% set in that spot. Teams in red on the bracket are set in those spots.
Here is the JoxPreps bracketology for Class 4A as of right now:
LOCKED = Team is 100% locked into that spot
HIGH = Most likely will finish where they are
MEDIUM = Most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but things could drastically change with just one or two results
1. Andalusia – LOCKED
2. UMS-Wright – LOCKED
3. Thomasville – HIGH
4. WS Neal – MEDIUM
Others that could grab a spot: Satsuma
Andalusia was already locked in as region champ, but they won last week to finish undefeated in region play. UMS-Wright’s win over Thomasville locked them into second place and a first round game at home. Thomasville still needs to beat Satsuma this week to lock up third place. WS Neal must beat Escambia County to lock up fourth. There could be a 3-way tie if Thomasville loses to Satsuma and WS Neal wins. Thomasville would almost assuredly win that with wins over Jackson and Demopolis, then WS Neal would be fourth on head-to-head over Satsuma. Satsuma’s only hope is to beat Thomasville and hope WS Neal loses, because that would them put them in third place and Thomasville in fourth.
1. Montgomery Catholic – MEDIUM
2. Alabama Christian – MEDIUM
3. Saint James – MEDIUM
4. Dale County – LOW
Others that could grab a spot: Trinity
This region is still up in the air with three teams tied for first at 4-1. Montgomery Catholic plays Alabama Christian this week. If Montgomery Catholic wins, they are region champion. If Alabama Christian wins, then it depends what happens between Saint James and Trinity. If ACA wins and Saint James wins, then Saint James is region champion, Alabama Christian is second and Catholic is third. If Catholic wins and Saint James wins, then Catholic is first, Saint James is second and ACA is third. If Saint James wins, then Trinity needs to hope Dale County loses. If Dale County wins, then Trinity will lose the tiebreaker and Dale County will be fourth.
If Trinity beats Saint James, then depending on what happens with Catholic/ACA, things could go a number of ways. If Catholic also wins, then it will go to non-region games which is still up in the air. If ACA beats Catholic, then ACA will win the region, Trinity will be second due to beating both Saint James and Catholic, then Catholic will be third, and Saint James fourth.
1. Munford – MEDIUM
2. Tallassee – MEDIUM
3. Leeds – MEDIUM
4. Childersburg – MEDIUM
Others that could grab a spot: Dadeville
With Leeds losing last week, that dropped from first to third place in the region. Munford still has to beat Leeds, but if they do, they will be the region champs. If Leeds wins and Tallassee defeats Elmore County, then it will come down to non-region wins for the region champ, then head-to-head for the second and third spot. Childersburg and Dadeville play this week and the winner gets fourth place guaranteed.
1. Northside – MEDIUM
2. Hale County – MEDIUM
3. Bibb County – MEDIUM
4. West Blocton – LOW
Others that could grab a spot: Greensboro, Sipsey Valley
Another week in the books, and another week that this region continues to be a mess. Northside, Hale County and Bibb County are all tied for first right now. Greensboro has a chance to solve a lot of problems if they win this week over Hale County. If they don’t, and all three teams at the top win, then it will go to non-region games. That will then throw the battle for fourth place into a crazy situation. It should be noted that the top three teams are locked into the playoffs, but the seeding can change depending on what happens. We have upgraded them to “Medium” confidence because of this.
As long as West Blocton beats Holt, and the top three teams all win, then there will be a second three-way tie for fourth place between Greensboro, Sipsey Valley and West Blocton who will all be at 3-4. As it stands, Greensboro and Sipsey Valley haven’t beaten anyone in their non-region schedule. West Blocton has – Brookwood and Verbena who are both 0-8. West Blocton’s best hope is that Brookwood plays Holt in the final week, and they need Brookwood to win that game to get a win in the tiebreaker. Greensboro actually plays Carver-Birmingham, which could give them enough wins to win the tiebreaker, but Carver is a playoff team in Class 6A, so that seems unlikely.
Here is how it stands as of now:
Greensboro (0): No wins
Remaining opponents: Carver-Birmingham, 6 wins
Sipsey Valley (0): No wins
Remaining opponents: None
West Blocton (0): Brookwood, 0 wins; Verbena, 0 wins
Remaining opponents: None
Sipsey Valley can’t win this tiebreaker. If Brookwood beats Holt, or Verbena beats Autaugaville or Berry (all of which is possible), AND Greensboro loses to Carver, then West Blocton gets in. If Greensboro beats Carver, then it’s done and Greensboro is in.
If no one wins anything and they are all still tied at 0, then it moves on to tiebreaker “M” which states: “The team whose defeated opponents have the most victories if all teams involved in the tie play an equal number of games.”
It seems, that because West Blocton beat Brookwood and Verbena, even though those aren’t quality wins, that Greensboro would actually get in over West Blocton because they beat West Blocton. So it would be like this:
Greensboro (7): West Blocton (5 wins), Holt (0 wins), Oak Grove (2 wins)
West Blocton (5): Brookwood (0 wins), Sipsey Valley (3 wins), Verbena (0 wins), Oak Grove (2 wins), Holt (0 wins)
Sipsey Valley (5): Holt (0 wins), Greensboro (3 wins), Oak Grove (2 wins)
In short – it seems like if it actually got to this point, then because West Blocton had the better season, Greensboro is actually the team that qualifies for the playoffs. You’ll notice that Sipsey Valley can’t win any of these scenarios, but they are in them because of beating Greensboro, which causes all of this chaos. The only way they can make the playoffs is by defeating Bibb County, in which case they will go to 4-3 and finish fourth no matter what.
1. Saks – HIGH
2. Jacksonville – MEDIUM
3. Hokes Bluff – MEDIUM
4. Cherokee County – MEDIUM
Others that could grab a spot: None
Saks and Hokes Bluff play this week and if Saks wins, then they are locked in as region champ. If Hokes Bluff wins, then it depends what happens in Jacksonville vs. Cherokee County. The four teams above are locked in to the playoffs, but the seeding can still change. If Hokes Bluff and Jacksonville win, then it will go to non-region tiebreakers for Saks, Hokes Bluff and Jacksonville that Jacksonville can’t win, but is still up in the air for Saks and Hokes Bluff depending on what happens in Week 10. If Hokes Bluff and Cherokee County win, then Hokes Bluff will be first, Saks will be second, Cherokee County will be third and Jacksonville will be fourth.
If Saks and Jacksonville win, then Saks will be first, Jacksonville second, Hokes Bluff third and Cherokee County fourth. This is the scenario we foresee happening. If Saks and Cherokee County win, then it will cause a three-way tiebreaker that Hokes Bluff wins by default due to their non-region wins to this point and it will be impossible for Jacksonville/Cherokee County to match it.
1. Fayette County – LOCKED
2. Dora – MEDIUM
3. Haleyville – MEDIUM
4. Winfield – MEDIUM
Others that could grab a spot: Cordova
Fayette County has locked up the region, but can still play spoiler as they face Haleyville this week. Haleyville defeated Dora last week, but if they lose and Dora beats Good Hope, who is tied for last in the region, then Dora will still finish second. If Haleyville loses and Winfield wins, then it will case a three-way tie for third place with those two and Cordova, who is already done with region play at 3-3. It will then go to winning percentage over teams ranked above them, and Haleyville will have defeated Dora to put them in third place.
That will then bring up the head-to-head tiebreaker between Cordova and Winfield, which Winfield won earlier in the season, putting in them fourth and eliminating Cordova from the playoff race. Cordova needs to hope that Winfield loses to Hamilton, then they would 100% qualify for the playoffs. If Haleyville wins, Cordova is fourth. If Haleyville loses, then Cordova is third.
1. Madison Academy – MEDIUM
2. Randolph – MEDIUM
3. Sardis – MEDIUM
4. Madison County – MEDIUM
Others that could grab a spot: Westminster Christian
This region is turned upside down because of Sardis losing to DAR a couple of weeks ago. Randolph, Sardis and Madison Academy are all tied at 4-1, but Randolph and Sardis play this week. We’ll assume Madison Academy beats DAR. If Sardis beats Randolph – Sardis is 1, Madison Academy is 2, Randolph is 3. If Randolph beats Sardis – Madison Academy is 1, Randolph is 2, Sardis is 3. Madison County and Westminster Christian play for fourth place this week to round out the seeding – winner is fourth, loser is out.
1. Rogers – MEDIUM
2. Wilson – MEDIUM
3. Deshler – MEDIUM
4. West Limestone – MEDIUM
Others that could grab a spot: None
Rogers and Wilson play for the region title this week. Winner is first, loser is second. West Limestone and Deshler play for third this week. Winner is third, loser is fourth. Isn’t that simple?