Week 8 is in the books and playoff spots are starting to get locked up across the state! Let’s take a look at our bracketology heading into the final week of region play for most teams and where everyone stands as of now.
We take a look at how we feel the brackets could play out and below is the bracket as we see it here at JoxPreps. This is nothing more than us looking at the numbers so far and projecting where teams could finish. These current placings are a mix of current standings, projections and our opinion – none of this is set in stone yet. As we near the end of the season, teams will begin to lock up playoff spots, and we will make sure to note when that happens.
With each team listed in the bracket, we have given a confidence grade. This shows how confident we are that a team will finish in a certain spot. A “HIGH” grade means that we feel they will almost assuredly finish in that spot. A “MEDIUM” grade means that we feel that the team will most likely finish somewhere around where we have them listed, maybe a spot or two off depending on future results. A “LOW” grade means that things are still way up in the air and this is only an opinion from us, but there is a lot that still has to play out.
Here is the JoxPreps bracketology for Class 7A as of right now:
* – Teams marked in red are locked into that position
LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = Most likely will finish where they are
MEDIUM = Most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but things could drastically change with just one or two results
1. McGill-Toolen (6-0) – HIGH
2. Theodore (6-1) – HIGH
3. Fairhope (4-2) – MEDIUM
4. Baker (3-3) – LOW
Others that could grab a spot: Murphy (3-3)
McGill-Toolen only needs to win this week over Baker to lock up the region. Theodore is locked into a top seed right now as long as McGill-Toolen doesn’t lose out and both of those teams will have home dates at least, the only way Theodore can move to #1 is if McGill-Toolen loses their next two. Fairhope is in a good position to be in third with an outside chance to cause a stir for first by beating Alma Bryant this week then McGill-Toolen next week.
Murphy lost to Baker and put themselves in a position to potentially be out, but there is a good chance they could win out and Baker lose to at least McGill-Toolen to put Murphy in fourth. We have moved Baker up to 4th strictly based on the head-to-head, but Murphy could easily be the fourth team.
1. Central-Phenix City (5-0) – HIGH
2. Auburn (4-1) – HIGH
3. Prattville (3-2) – LOCKED
4. Enterprise (2-3) – MEDIUM
Others that could grab a spot: Lee-Montgomery (3-3)
Central-Phenix City and Auburn will square off this week for the region title. Winner gets first while the loser is second.
Prattville is locked into third based on their losses to Central/Auburn and their wins over anyone else they could tie with. They play 0-5 Smiths Station so a loss would at worst put them in a tie with only teams they have beaten.
Lee-Montgomery could be out of the playoffs and their destiny is in the hands of Jeff Davis. Jeff Davis can’t make it at 1-4, but they can beat Enterprise to put them at 2-4 (which would move them to 6th place and put Lee in at the 4th spot at 3-3. If Enterprise beats Jeff Davis, they will be tied at 3-3 but in over Lee based on their win over Lee this past weekend.
1. Thompson (6-0) – LOCKED
2. Mountain Brook (5-1) – HIGH
3. Hoover (5-1) – HIGH
4. Vestavia Hills (3-3) – LOCKED
Others that could grab a spot: None
The four playoff teams are set and two seeds are locked. Mountain Brook and Hoover play this week, winner gets a home date against a Region 4 team, the loser travels north (to what most likely will be Sparkman).
No other team can pass Vestavia. Hewitt-Trussville and Spain Park are the only two who have a chance to tie Vestavia, but since the Rebels won head-to-head against both of them, Vestavia is locked in to the 4th spot and will travel to Madison to face James Clemens.
1. James Clemens (6-0) – LOCKED
2. Sparkman (5-1) – HIGH
3. Austin (4-2) – MEDIUM
4. Florence (4-2) – HIGH
Others that could grab a spot: Bob Jones (3-3)
James Clemens can’t lose the region this week by losing to Austin since Austin has 2 losses now, so they have locked up the top spot. They will host Vestavia in round one.
Sparkman and Florence play this week. If Sparkman wins, they are second. If Florence wins, then it could cause a three-way tie with Austin and Sparkman where they all would have beaten each other, however, for it to be a 3-way tie means Austin has beaten James Clemens, therefore, they would be the 2-seed based on their win over the team at the top according to tiebreaker C which is highest winning percentage against the #1 ranked team in the region. Assuming Austin loses to James Clemens, then a Florence win would move them to second, Sparkman in third, then it would come down to Austin and Bob Jones for fourth.
Bob Jones is now very much alive after beating Austin and if Austin loses/Florence wins, then Bob Jones only needs to beat Huntsville to bump Austin and take the fourth spot. Austin has the head to head over Florence if Sparkman wins, but now Bob Jones can throw a wrench in things. Our projects have it playing out like this:
James Clemens defeats Austin
Sparkman defeats Florence
Bob Jones defeats Huntsville
Should that happen, there is a three-way tie for third with Austin, Florence and Bob Jones at 4-3 that will have to head to non-region games and tiebreaker L that states the team whose defeated non-region opponents have the most total wins.
Florence has 4, potentially 5
Bob Jones has 3, potentially 4
Austin has 11, potentially 15
So clearly Austin would win if that’s the case. We’ll let it play out and have the updated brackets for you this Friday.