Some region pictures are completely clear, or are at least becoming clearer. Some are still a mess.

We take a look at how we feel the brackets will play out over the final weeks of the season. Below is the bracket as we see it here at JoxPreps. This is nothing more than us looking at the numbers so far and projecting where teams could finish. These current placings are a mix of current standings, projections and our opinion. As we near the end of the season, teams will begin to lock up playoff spots, and we will make sure to note when that happens.

With each team listed in the bracket, we have given a confidence grade. This shows how confident we are that a team will finish in a certain spot. A “HIGH” grade means that we feel they will almost assuredly finish in that spot. A “MEDIUM” grade means that we feel that the team will most likely finish somewhere around where we have them listed, maybe a spot or two off depending on future results. A “LOW” grade means that things are still way up in the air and this is only an opinion from us, but there is a lot that still has to play out.

Here is the JoxPreps bracketology for Class 4A as of right now:

* – Teams marked in red are locked into that position

Confidence

LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = Most likely will finish where they are
MEDIUM = Most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but things could drastically change with just one or two results


Region 1

1. UMS-WrightLOCKED
2. Hillcrest-EvergreenHIGH
3. Escambia CountyMEDIUM
4. AndalusiaMEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Williamson, Clarke County

UMS-Wright locked up the region title last week, but there is still a fight going on behind them. Hillcrest and Escambia County are tied at 4-2 right now in second place but Hillcrest has 0-6 Monroe County this week and they own the head-to-head tiebreaker on Escambia County. So Hillcrest is in a good spot to finish second. Escambia County and Williamson play this week. If Escambia County wins, they are at least third and can get second if Hillcrest does lose.

Behind those two, Andalusia, Williamson and Clarke County are all tied for fourth at 3-3. Andalusia and Clarke County play this week and the loser will be eliminated.

Assuming Hillcrest beats Monroe County and takes second, then IF:

Escambia County/Andalusia win – 3. Escambia County, 4. Andalusia (our current projection)
Escambia County/Clarke County win – 3. Escambia County, 4. Clarke County

Williamson/Andalusia win – goes to non-region tiebreakers between Williamson, Andalusia and Escambia County (listed below) which would most likely be 3. Andalusia, 4. Williamson or 3. Williamson, 4. Escambia County depending on who wins it
Williamson/Clarke County win – 3. Williamson (based on wins over both Escambia/Clarke County), 4. Escambia County (based on win over Clarke County)

Non-region defeated opponents win totals:

Williamson – 3 (LeFlore 3, BC Rain 0); Vigor (8) TBD
Andalusia – 3 (Trinity 3, Opp 0)
Escambia County – 0 (Wilcox Central 0); Francis Marion (5) TBD but wouldn’t count because they are 1A

So as it stands, Escambia County wouldn’t win this tiebreaker anyway because even if they beat Francis Marion, the rule says it only counts games that are above your classification or within two classifications under. Since Escambia County is 4A and Francis Marion is 1A, the win wouldn’t count toward this tiebreaker. That leaves Andalusia and Williamson who are tied. Williamson can defeat Vigor and lock up third place, but that is unlikely. If Andalusia wins or ties Williamson in this tiebreaker, they are third with their head-to-head victory over Williamson. That would then make Williamson fourth with their head-to-head win over Escambia County.


Region 2

1. Montgomery CatholicHIGH
2. HeadlandHIGH
3. TrinityLOCKED
4. AshfordMEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Alabama Christian

Montgomery Catholic and Headland play this week for first and second place. Trinity is locked into third place regardless, even if they lose and tie Ashford because of their head-to-head win. Ashford only needs to beat Alabama Christian to lock up fourth place. If they lose, they will drop to 2-4 and be in a tie with at least Alabama Christian which they would then lose. If Booker T. Washington can also defeat Trinity, then it would be a three-way tie – but Alabama Christian would still win that tiebreaker with wins over both Ashford and BT Washington.

There is no scenario where Booker T. Washington makes the playoffs after their loss to Alabama Christian last week.


Region 3

1. American ChristianLOCKED
2. MontevalloLOCKED
3. Sipsey ValleyLOCKED
4. West BloctonLOCKED

Others that could grab a spot: None

American Christian locked up the region last week. They hold the tiebreaker over Montevallo, and Montevallo locked up second regardless with their tiebreaker over Sipsey Valley. If Sipsey Valley loses to Sumter Central, they will be third regardless based on their wins over West Blocton and Greensboro who could tie them. West Blocton is done with region play and wins a tiebreaker over Greensboro so they are locked into fourth.

Greensboro can cause tiebreakers, but they can’t win any of them.


Region 4

1. LincolnHIGH
2. TalladegaLOW
3. HandleyLOW
4. Elmore CountyLOW

Others that could grab a spot: Holtville

Lincoln’s loss to Holtville has this region in a bind. If Lincoln beats Elmore County, then they are region champs. If they lose, then there could be an insane tie. Handley and Talladega are 3-2 right now and tied for second, but play each other so one will move to 4-2 and one will fall to 3-3.

Here are the non-region defeated opponents win totals right now for each team:

Lincoln – 7 (Southside-Gadsden 4, Munford 3); Montevallo (7) TBD
Talladega – 3 (Munford 3); Moody (1) TBD
Elmore County – 2 (Marbury 0, Dadeville 2, Dallas County 0); Tallassee (5) TBD
Handley – 1 (BT Washington 1); Central-Clay County (5) TBD
Holtville- 0 (Central Coosa 0, Dallas County 0); Oak Grove (0) TBD, Marbury (0) TBD

IF:

Lincoln/Handley win – 1. Lincoln, 2. Handley, 3. Holtville (based on win over Lincoln), 4. Talladega (based on win over Elmore County)
Lincoln/Talladega win – 1. Lincoln, 2. Talladega, 3. Handley (based on wins over Holtville/Elmore County), 4. Elmore County (based on win over Holtville)

Elmore County/Handley win – 1. Lincoln (based on non-region opponent wins), 2. Handley (based on win over Elmore County), 3. Elmore County, 4. Holtville (based on win over Talladega)
Elmore County/Talladega win – 1. Lincoln (based on non-region opponent wins), 2. Talladega (based on win over Elmore County), 3. Elmore County, 4. Handley (based on win over Holtville)

So the way we see it, Lincoln has nearly locked up the region title regardless because their non-region defeated opponent win totals are already high enough to win any tiebreaker. The only way they would lose is if Elmore County gets more wins and (possibility of 10 more wins with a win over Tallassee) or if Handley gets more wins (possibility of 8 more wins with a win over Central-Clay County).


Region 5

1. Fayette CountyHIGH
2. NorthsideMEDIUM
3. Good HopeMEDIUM
4. CurryMEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: None

Fayette County holds the tiebreaker over Northside, but they still need to defeat Good Hope to lock up the region. Northside and Curry are playing for position as well. These four teams are locked into the playoffs but could finish any number of ways. There are multiple scenarios that could see it go to non-region defeated opponents win totals. If so, here they are currently:

Fayette County – 10 (Gordo 6, Sipsey Valley 4); Dora (5) TBD
Northside – 9 (Corner 4, Brookwood 2, West Blocton 3); Sipsey Valley (4) TBD
Good Hope – 5 (Carbon Hill 3, Priceville 1, Tanner 1); Hanceville (1) TBD
Curry – 5 (Oakman 4, Hanceville 1); Carbon Hill (3) TBD

IF:

Fayette County/Northside win – 1. Fayette County, 2. Northside, 3. Good Hope, 4. Curry
Fayette County/Curry win – 1. Fayette County, then it goes to non-region defeated opponents win totals: Northside is in a good position to win this tiebreaker, so that would make them 2, with Good Hope 3 and Curry 4.

IF:

Good Hope/Northside win – As of now, Fayette County would win the three-way tie between those two and be 1, 2. Northside, 3. Good Hope, 4. Curry
Good Hope/Curry win – 1. Good Hope, 2. Fayette County, 3. Curry, 4. Northside


Region 6

1. JacksonvilleHIGH
2. Hokes BluffHIGH
3. AnnistonLOCKED
4. OneontaLOCKED

Others that could grab a spot: None

Jacksonville and Hokes Bluff will play for the region title this week. Loser is guaranteed second. Anniston is a game ahead of Oneonta and holds the tiebreaker so they are locked into third. Oneonta can still get in a 2-team or 3-team tie if they lose to White Plains this week, but they will win the tiebreakers regardless with wins over both teams, so they are locked into the fourth seed.


Region 7

1. North JacksonHIGH
2. DARHIGH
3. RandolphHIGH
4. St. John Paul IIHIGH

Others that could grab a spot: None

North Jackson has one of the most high powered offenses in Alabama high school football history, but still haven’t locked up the region yet. They face Randolph this week. If North Jackson wins, they are region champ. If they lose, it will cause a tiebreaker. DAR And St. John Paul II play this week as well. Those four teams are locked into the playoffs, but the seeding is still up in the air. Here are the current non-region defeated opponents win totals:

North Jackson – 7 (Plainview 3, Scottsboro 4); Arab (1) TBD
St. John Paul II – 5 (Locust Fork 3, East Lawrence 2); Douglas (1) TBD
Randolph – 4 (Lauderdale County 4); Columbia (0) TBD
DAR – 1 (Douglas 1); Brindlee Mountain (0) TBD

IF:

North Jackson/DAR win – 1. North Jackson, 2. DAR, 3. Randolph, 4. St. John Paul II (this is our projected outcome)
North Jackson/St. John Paul II win – 1. North Jackson, 2. St. John Paul II (based on non-region tiebreaker currently), 3. DAR (based on win over Randolph), 4. Randolph

Randolph/DAR win – 1. North Jackson (based on non-region tiebreaker currently), 2. DAR (based on win over Randolph), 3. Randolph, 4. St. John Paul II
Randolph/St. John Paul II win – 1. Randolph (based on win over North Jackson), 2. North Jackson, 3. St. John Paul II (based on win over DAR), 4. DAR


Region 8

1. BrooksLOCKED
2. DeshlerHIGH
3. RogersHIGH
4. Central-FlorenceHIGH

Others that could grab a spot: None

Brooks locked up the region title last week. Behind them, there is a three-way tie at 3-2 for second place between Rogers, Central-Florence and Deshler. These four teams are locked in after Wilson’s loss last week to Central-Florence. Rogers and Central-Florence play this week. Deshler and West Limestone play this week. Deshler’s forfeit loss to Elkmont has made it where the winner of Rogers and Central-Florence can still claim second if Deshler were to lose this week. The loser of that game is locked into fourth.

IF:

Rogers/Deshler win – 2. Deshler (based on win over Rogers), 3. Rogers, 4. Central-Florence
Rogers/West Limestone win – 2. Rogers, 3. Deshler, 4. Central-Florence

Central-Florence/Deshler win – 2. Deshler (based on win over Central-Florence), 3. Central-Florence, 4. Rogers
Central-Florence/West Limestone win – 2. Central-Florence, 3. Deshler, 4. Rogers

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Jon Lunceford is a former high school athlete, and two-time AHSAA football state champion. Jon has been covering high school athletics for over a decade and continues that coverage through WJOX 94.5 and Jox Preps. Jon is also the host of Jox Primetime each night on Jox 94.5 from 6-8 pm. Follow @jlunce