Some region pictures are completely clear, or are at least becoming clearer. Some are still a mess.
We take a look at how we feel the brackets will play out over the final weeks of the season. Below is the bracket as we see it here at JoxPreps. This is nothing more than us looking at the numbers so far and projecting where teams could finish. These current placings are a mix of current standings, projections and our opinion. As we near the end of the season, teams will begin to lock up playoff spots, and we will make sure to note when that happens.
With each team listed in the bracket, we have given a confidence grade. This shows how confident we are that a team will finish in a certain spot. A “HIGH” grade means that we feel they will almost assuredly finish in that spot. A “MEDIUM” grade means that we feel that the team will most likely finish somewhere around where we have them listed, maybe a spot or two off depending on future results. A “LOW” grade means that things are still way up in the air and this is only an opinion from us, but there is a lot that still has to play out.
Here is the JoxPreps bracketology for Class 3A as of right now:
* – Teams marked in red are locked into that position
LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = Most likely will finish where they are
MEDIUM = Most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but things could drastically change with just one or two results
1. Mobile Christian – LOCKED
2. Flomaton – MEDIUM
3. Thomasville – MEDIUM
4. TR Miller – MEDIUM
Others that could grab a spot: Bayside Academy
Mobile Christian has the region locked up with a game left. Behind them, there are four teams who can still get in. Bayside Academy is done at 3-3, but Flomaton, Thomasville and TR Miller are all at 3-2.
Flomaton and TR Miller play, and the winner will be locked into the playoffs in at least third place. Thomasville faces Excel which we are projecting as a win, so that would put them at 4-2.
If Thomasville wins, then:
Flomaton wins – 2. Flomaton (based on win over Thomasville), 3. Thomasville, 4. TR Miller (based on win over Bayside Academy)
TR Miller wins – 2. Thomasville (based on win over TR Miller), 3. TR Miller, 4. Bayside Academy (based on win over Flomaton)
If Thomasville loses to Excel, then:
Flomaton wins – 2. Flomaton, 3. Thomasville (based on wins over both Bayside Academy/TR Miller), 4. TR Miller (based on win over Bayside Academy)
TR Miller wins – 2. TR Miller, 3. Bayside Academy (based on them and Flomaton both defeating Excel when Thomasville didn’t, then Bayside winning head-to-head), 4. Flomaton (based on win over Thomasville)
1. Pike County – LOCKED
2. Providence Christian – HIGH
3. Houston Academy – MEDIUM
4. Slocumb – MEDIUM
Others that could grab a spot: Wicksburg
Pike County has locked up the region title, even on tiebreakers. Providence Christian and Houston Academy play for second place this week. If Houston Academy wins, then they are second while Providence Christian is third. If Providence Christian wins, then they are second but Houston Academy might not be third. If Houston Academy loses to Providence Christian, then:
Wicksburg wins AND Slocumb loses – 3. Wicksburg, 4. Houston Academy
Wicksburg loses AND Slocumb wins – 3. Houston Academy, 4. Slocumb
Wicksburg wins AND Slocumb wins – it goes to non-region defeated opponents wins:
Houston Academy – 5 (McKenzie 1, Florala 4); GW Long (2) TBD
Wicksburg – 4 (Daleville 4, Rehobeth 0); Ashford (4) TBD
Slocumb – 0; Geneva County (5) TBD
So if Wicksburg and Slocumb both win, as of now, Houston Academy would be third with Slocumb in fourth based on their win over Wicksburg.
There is also the chance that Wicksburg and Slocumb both lose and Straughn defeats Pike County (although the chance of that happening is slim). In that case, Slocumb would be the 4-seed.
1. St. James – LOCKED
2. Pike Road – MEDIUM
3. Beulah – MEDIUM
4. Montgomery Academy – MEDIUM
Others that could grab a spot: Bullock County
St. James has the region title locked up. Behind them, there is a three-way tie between Beulah, Pike Road and Montgomery Academy. Beulah and Pike Road play this week. If Beulah wins, they are locked into second. If Pike Road wins, they will be second only if Montgomery Academy loses to Bullock County. If Montgomery Academy beats Bullock County, they will be second and Pike Road will be third.
Pike Road/Montgomery Academy win – 2. Montgomery Academy, 3. Pike Road, 4. Beulah
Pike Road/Bullock County win – 2. Pike Road, 3. Bullock County, 4. Beulah
Beulah/Montgomery Academy win – 2. Beulah, 3. Montgomery Academy, 4. Pike Road
Beulah/Bullock County win – 2. Beulah, 3. Bullock County (based on their win over Beulah), 4. Montgomery Academy (based on their win over Pike Road)
1. Winfield – LOCKED
2. Gordo – HIGH
3. Lamar County – HIGH
4. Oakman – LOCKED
Others that could grab a spot: None
Winfield has locked up the region title no matter what with wins over Gordo and Lamar County. Gordo and Lamar County play this week to determine second and third place. Oakman has locked up fourth place no matter what with wins over Hale County and Carbon Hill.
1. Fultondale – LOCKED
2. Midfield – HIGH
3. JB Pennington – HIGH
4. Holly Pond – HIGH
Others that could grab a spot: Vinemont, Locust Fork
Fultondale has locked up the region title. Midfield and JB Pennington play this week and the winner gets second while the loser gets third. Holly Pond has to win to lock up fourth. If they lose to Vinemont and Locust Fork loses to Hanceville, then Vinemont will be fourth. If Vinemont defeats Holly Pond and Locust Fork defeats Hanceville, it will go to non-region defeated opponents win totals to determine fourth place. Currently, here is how things stand:
Locust Fork – 5 (East Lawrence 2, Southeastern 3)
Vinemont – 5 (Westbrook Christian 5); Cold Springs (4) TBD
Holly Pond – 3 (New Hope 0, Ider 3, Danville 0); Fairview (3) TBD
As it stands now, if Locust Fork and Vinemont indeed tied, Locust Fork would win this tiebreaker based on their head-to-head win over Vinemont.
1. Piedmont – HIGH
2. Randolph County – HIGH
3. Saks – HIGH
4. Weaver – HIGH
Others that could grab a spot: Walter Wellborn, Pleasant Valley
A major upset last week as Randolph County took down Saks on the road. That puts the top three teams in a 5-1 tie heading into the final week of region play. Assuming they all win, it will head to non-region defeated opponents win totals, which currently stands:
Piedmont – 7 (Addison 7); Geraldine (7) TBD
Randolph County – 6 (Notasulga 4, Woodland 2); Wadley (6) TBD
Saks – 4 (Alabama Christian 2, Cleburne County 2)
So Piedmont is in the lead right now. There is no way Saks can win this tiebreaker, so it will come down to Piedmont and Randolph County no matter what. Piedmont will win this tiebreaker if they have more or the same amount of wins to their total (based on their head-to-head victory over Randolph County). Because there is a much higher probability of Piedmont winning this tiebreaker, that means Randolph County will be second with their win over Saks, and Saks will be third.
Of course, if one of these teams loses this week (which is unlikely), then the top spot will be determined by best record, then head-to-head.
Fourth place is a tie between Pleasant Valley and Weaver right now. If Weaver wins over 1-5 BB Comer or they lose AND Pleasant Valley loses, they lock up fourth place no matter what. That is what we are projecting. However, if Weaver loses and Pleasant Valley defeats Randolph County, then Pleasant Valley will be fourth (and it will solve a three-way tie between the top teams where Saks will be 1, Piedmont 2 and Randolph County 3).
1. Geraldine – LOCKED
2. Susan Moore – LOCKED
3. Plainview – MEDIUM
4. Sylvania – MEDIUM
Others that could grab a spot: Pisgah
Geraldine’s win over Susan Moore gave them the region title no matter what. Susan Moore locked up second place and they are done with region play. Behind them, Sylvania and Plainview are tied for third at 3-2 with Pisgah in fifth at 2-3. Sylvania has to face Geraldine, so that could be tough. Plainview and Pisgah play each other.
Geraldine/Plainview win – 3. Plainview, 4. Sylvania
Geraldine/Pisgah win – it goes to non-region defeated opponent win totals which currently stands:
Pisgah – 3 (Woodville 3); North Sand Mountain (6) TBD
Sylvania – 1 (Gaston 1); Fyffe (8) TBD
Plainview – 0; Crossville (1) TBD
So Pisgah is in a good position to win that and be third while Plainview would be fourth with their head-to-head win over Sylvania.
Sylvania/Plainview win – 3. Plainview (based on win over Sylvania), 4. Sylvania
Sylvania/Pisgah win – 3. Plainview, 4. Pisgah
1. Westminster-Christian – LOCKED
2. Colbert Heights – LOCKED
3. Lauderdale County – LOCKED
4. Clements – LOW
Others that could grab a spot: Phil Campbell, East Lawrence
Westminster-Christian has locked up the region title while Colbert Heights is second and Lauderdale County is third (based on Colbert Heights beating Lauderdale County if they tie).
After that, it’s complicated because every team can cause a tiebreaker and the team in the lead for fourth place has to play Westminster-Christian.
Clements and Lexington play this week to eliminate one of those teams. Our projections say that East Lawrence Loses, Clements defeats Lexington, and Phil Campbell loses. That would put East Lawrence and Clements in a tiebreaker where Clements is fourth.
To keep it simple, this is what each team needs to do in order to guarantee fourth place:
East Lawrence – Beat Westminster-Christian or hope that Lexington beats Clements
Clements – Beat Lexington, hope East Lawrence loses to Westminster-Christian and Phil Campbell loses to Colbert Heights
Phil Campbell – Beat Colbert Heights, hope East Lawrence loses to Westminster-Christian and Clements beats Lexington
Lexington – Even if Lexington beat Clements, East Lawrence lost to Westminster-Christian and Phil Campbell beat Colbert Heights – that is the only way they could cause a tiebreaker, but then Phil Campbell would win it with their win over Colbert Heights. There is no way for Lexington to make it.